US Economy Forecasts

J.J. Jackson asked:


Have you heard? The economy sucks. Maybe you have read about it in the newspaper, on various internet sites or even heard about it on the evening news or the radio. That is, if you can even afford to pay for newspapers, internet access or electricity to power your television without giving up important things like providing dinner for your children who are now relegated to wearing burlap sacks once filled with potatoes.

The country is in the dumper. Wages are down. People are worried about losing their jobs. Did I miss any of the big talking points? I know there are a lot more where those came from and I could fill the page with them. However, that would be a pointless exercise.

Think about those claims I mentioned above. We are inundated every day with these stories of doom and gloom and about how America is going to Hell in a hand basket. Now maybe, just maybe, if you only listened to the stories about how bad it is out there you might be determined to believe that a recession or even a depression is on the way even though we have not even met the standards of a recession yet. Or maybe you are one of those who have rewritten the truth to actually believe we are in one now?

Well ask yourself this, if everything sucks so bad, the economy is in shambles and we on the verge of (or even in) a recession then how is it that people are just blowing their cash on extremely frivolous things? Things like, oh I don’t know, going to Disney theme parks?

Yes, you heard right. In this time of such dire circumstances attendance at Disney’s parks in the United States is up 5% and revenues are up even higher - 11% give or take. In other words, not only are more people going to Disney’s parks, but they are spending more money there too.

Hmm. Interesting. Is spending lots of money on leisure something you often do as the first thing when you fear a potential economic problem? I know that there are people out there that spend money they don’t have (see the sub-prime housing fiasco for example) but I am talking to you, an intelligent human being and not some schlub who would not know how to save a dollar if their life depended on it.

As a country we are supposed to be suffering economically. We are supposed to be worried about losing our jobs and wondering if our paycheck will be handed to us twice a month on schedule and actively questioning where our next meal will be coming from. We are told that our neighbors are suffering and that they are not able to afford simple things like clothes for their children without tightening their belts beyond the last available notch. If they can even still afford a belt that is.

This is what we are told by certain people. But our eyes are drawn back to the news about Disney almost with eager interest to make these reports square with what we have been told. Maybe we are supposed to believe that people are just going out for one last fling before reality sets in, the bubble bursts and the soup lines that will stretch for blocks are formed. Maybe we are supposed to believe that these poor, deluded souls simply don’t see the impending disaster that they are told day after day is coming.

After all, things cannot be going that well. The reports and the pundits tell us otherwise. They say that it is all but over – pack up the bags and last one out please turn off the lights. We will all be panhandling for spare change before it is all said and done.

But yet we still have questions as to why Disney is doing so well and showing growth. It does not make much sense. And then it dawns on us. People can tell us anything. They can say anything they want. But just because the words are spoken doesn’t make them truthful.

I could tell you that there is an elephant under my hat or that the sky is really hot pink and not blue or that the grass is purple and not green. But you can simply look and see that such claims are not true.

The same thing is currently happening with the economy.

Now, that is not to deny that there are pockets of trouble, sectors that are struggling for various reason and that there won’t be recessions, depressions or just otherwise hard times to come. They happen. There are good times and there are bad times. And sometimes something so catastrophic happens (like say a government induced housing bubble bursting) that bad times, or at least troubled times, are unavoidable.

No one can stop them no matter how much they promise. Not even politicians promising hope and change or more government control of our lives and the economy.

But the next time someone tells you how bad it is in America and asks what you are going to do next, just smile. Then respond. “Why, I’m going to Disney World!” Just like the rest of America apparently.

J.Dean asked:


As anglers, I doubt we even realize the impact we have on our nations economy. Hopefully this will give you some insight on the positive cash flow we create by just doing what we are so passionate about.

In the past I’ve designed a couple of websites for tournament anglers and in the process I wanted to collect data to present to potential supporters and sponsors to make them aware of impact and participation. I recently “re-discovered” that data and thought you might find it interesting. So below is some of the numbers I collected from various sources that paint a pretty good picture of how fishing has evolved in to a money making, national past time.

Right now, the only ripple of interest to your angling friend is the one made by the fish as it surfaces at the end of the line. But all around, the money spent to buy tackle, gas for the boat and film to record the one that didn’t get away, is having a tremendous, positive impact on the economy. On average, an angler spends over $1,200 every year on the sport. Hidden, but none-the-less real, is a multiplying factor that effectively triples what you spend as the initial expenditure ripples through the economy. Take for example the $10 plunked down by an angler for a new a lure. It spreads outward just like the ripples made after the lure hits the water. That revenue helps the store’s owner pay her rent, bills and employees. These individuals then use part of that money for other goods and services and the rippling effect further spreads and repeats. Of course, ten dollars isn’t very significant by itself, but when 44 million anglers spend $41.5 billion in a year, the result in jobs, wages, and other economic effects is an extraordinary pillar of America’s economic health. More focused on playing the fish at the end of the line, your typical angler gives little thought to how his hobby is helping provide his fellow Americans a boatload of benefits. The 1.1 million jobs, $7.3 billion in tax revenues, and $30 billion in wages generated by recreational fishing are many times greater than those created by corporate giants like Ford, Microsoft or Nike. Generating more than $116 billion in total output, this remarkably simple activity of dipping one’s line in the water provides nine times the economic benefit of commercial fishing. ‘

“I like to fish because it is totally relaxing. I love the water. I can concentrate and forget all my worries. I count my blessings while fishing.’ George Bush, president.”

Participation:

44.4 million Americans ages 7 and older fish2 (An estimated 50 million fish including all age groups). One out of every six U.S. residents 16 and older fish. 1 25 percent of U.S. males fish, and 8 percent of U.S. females fish. 1 Excluding those who fished the Great Lakes, freshwater anglers account for 82 percent of all anglers. Anglers spend an average of 16 days fishing and take an average of 13 fishing trips annually. Anglers 16 and older took 365 million freshwater fishing trips in 2001 totaling 467 million days. Including saltwater anglers, 437 million fishing trips totaling 557 million days were taken. From 1991 to 1996, freshwater fishing days rose 13 percent. The average number of freshwater fishing days per angler increased from 14.3 in 1991 to 16.7 in 1996. Between 1980 and 1995, the number of Americans who fished increased 16 percent. Residents of the South provided the biggest increase in fishing (21 percent) in the United States between 1980 and 1995. The number of males fishing increased 14 percent from 1980 to 1995.

Popularity:

Fishing ranks as the 4th most popular participation sport in the nation. It ranks ahead of bicycling, bowling, basketball, golf, jogging, baseball, softball, soccer, volleyball, tennis, football and skiing. Only walking, swimming and camping are more popular. More Americans fish than play golf and tennis combined. More Americans fish than play soccer and basketball. The number of youths ages 12 to 17 who participate in freshwater fishing increased 10.9 percent since 1991 to 4.5 million. During the same period, the number of youths ages 12 to 17 who play baseball decreased 15.4 percent to 4 million. Basketball, softball, tennis and volleyball participation declined between 2 and 46 percent. Fishing ranks as the 2nd most popular water-related outdoor sport in the United States. Swimming ranks 1st. Freshwater fishing ranks as one of the top-five participation sports in 7 states. Fishing in general (both freshwater and saltwater) ranks as one of the top-five participation sports in 18 states. Fishing is the No. 1 participation sport in Minnesota, Florida, New Jersey and North Carolina.

Women and Minorities:

11.9 million women 7 and older fish. That’s more than the number who participate in jogging, basketball, volleyball, softball, golf or tennis. Freshwater fishing is the 10th most popular participation sport among women. 2 26.8 percent of all anglers are female 2 (representing 8 percent of the U.S. female population). 5 percent of all anglers are black (representing 7 percent of the black population). 5 percent of all anglers are Hispanic (representing 7 percent of the Hispanic population). The number of women fishing increased 19 percent from 1980 to 1995 compared to 14 percent for males. The region that experienced the largest increase in the number of females fishing was the Northeast. Women spend on average $246 per year for trip-related fishing expenses and $70 per year on fishing equipment for a total of $3 billion. Hispanics fish at lower rates than African-Americans and women, but they spend, on average, more money - $434 per angler for trips and $154 for equipment. Hispanics spent a total of $696 million per year on fishing trips and equipment. Fishing equipment expenditures among African-American anglers increased 43 percent between 1991 and 1996. African-American anglers spend on average $324 per year for trip-related fishing expenses and $128 per year on fishing equipment for a total of $814 million. African-American anglers spend more days fishing (22 vs. 18) and take more trips (18 vs. 14), on average, than all anglers. 64 percent of African-American anglers live in the South compared to 39 percent of all anglers. 43 percent of female anglers live in the South. 16 percent of African-American anglers live in the Midwest. 26 percent of female anglers live in the Midwest. 43 percent of Hispanic anglers live in the South. 38 percent of Hispanic anglers live in the West compared to 20 percent of all anglers. The number of days fished by African-American anglers increased 72 percent between 1991 and 1996 compared to 22 percent for all anglers. The number of days fished by female anglers increased 15 percent between 1991 and 1996. The number of days fished by Hispanic anglers remained constant between 1991 and 1996, but fishing trip expenditures increased 50 percent during the same period. 1.9 million persons 16 and older with disabilities took 33 million fishing trips in 2001, fishing for 41 million days.

Why People Fish:

33 percent of anglers fish to relax. 25 percent of anglers fish as a way of spending time with family and friends. 65 percent of non-anglers and 88 percent of anglers say that being asked by a child would make them want to go fishing or make them want to fish more often.

What People Fish For and Where They Fish:

Bass fishing is the most popular type of fishing in the United States. 38 percent of all freshwater anglers in the United States fish for black bass. 28 percent of freshwater anglers fish for trout. 28 percent of freshwater anglers fish for panfish. 27 percent of freshwater anglers fish for catfish. Bass are sought on 36 percent of all freshwater fishing days. 92 percent of freshwater anglers fish in their state of residence. 23 percent of freshwater anglers fish out of state. 85 percent of freshwater anglers fish in flat water, including ponds, lakes and reservoirs. 44 percent of freshwater anglers fish rivers and streams.

U.S. Anglers by Age Group:

17 percent of 16-to 17-year-olds fish, comprising 4 percent of all anglers. 13 percent of 18-to 24-year-olds fish, comprising 9 percent of all anglers. 19 percent of 25-to 34-year-olds fish, comprising 19 percent of all anglers. 21 percent of 35-to 44-year-olds fish, comprising 27 percent of all anglers. 17 percent of 45-to 54-year-olds fish, comprising 20 percent of all anglers. 16 percent of 55-to 64-year-olds fish, comprising 12 percent of all anglers. 8 percent of 65+ year-olds fish, comprising 9 percent of all anglers. Fishing among 35- to 44-year-olds increased 60 percent between 1980 and 1995. It was the largest increase of any group.

Economic Impact of Fishing:

Anglers spent $35.6 billion in 2001 to pursue their sport. They spent $14.7 billion for fishing trips, $17 billion for equipment, and $4 billion for licenses, stamps tags, land leasing and ownership, membership dues and contributions, and magazines. 1 If hypothetically ranked as a corporation, this revenue figure would put sport fishing at 32nd on the 2002 Fortune 500 list of America’s largest companies. Total economic output generated by freshwater fishing in 2001 exceeded $74 billion, including the impact on retailers, suppliers of goods and services to retailers, wholesalers and manufacturers, plus the indirect and induced impacts resulting from these activities. Including saltwater fishing, economic output reached $116 billion. The average angler incurs $1,046 in fishing-related expenses. Freshwater fishing expenditures in 2001 generated more than $19.4 billion in wages. Including saltwater fishing, $30.1 billion in wages were generated (up 23 percent since 1991). 683,892 full-time jobs exist due to freshwater fishing. Including saltwater fishing, the total exceeds 1 million (up 16 percent since 1991). $2.07 billion was spent on fishing tackle in 2001. Fishing tackle ranks 4th in terms of consumer expenditures for non-team sports equipment. Golf equipment ranks first followed by exercise equipment and firearms for hunting. Florida anglers spend more than $4 billion annually on fishing and related equipment. California and Texas anglers spend more than $2 billion. Angler expenditures exceed $1 billion in Michigan, Minnesota, New York, North Carolina and Wisconsin.

Economic Impact of Fishing:

U.S. Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service and U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 2001 National Survey of Fishing, Hunting and Wildlife-associated Recreation. National Sporting Goods Association. Sports Participation in 2001. Future of Fishing project conducted by Responsive Management of Harrisonburg, Va. American Sportfishing Association. The 2001 Demographics and Economic Impact of Sport Fishing in the United States. Participation and Expenditure Patterns of African-American, Hispanic, and Women Hunters and Anglers. Addendum to the 1996 National Survey of Fishing, Hunting and Wildlife-Associated Recreation. Black Bass Fishing in the U.S. Addendum to the 1996 National Survey of Fishing, Hunting and Wildlife-Associated Recreation. 1980-1995 Participation in Fishing, Hunting, and Wildlife Watching. National and Regional Demographic Trends. Sport Fish and Wildlife Restoration Web site, restorewildlife.org.