US Economy Forecasts

Josh Greenberger asked:


Well, we all know what’s happening. Major corporations are folding, people are losing their jobs, houses are being foreclosed on in record numbers, people who’ve never needed public assistance now do, and our overall standard of living is declining on a daily basis.

No one knows where the bottom is, or how long a come-back will take, if that ever happens. Some of the companies who made our great, vibrant economy what it once was, either no longer exist or are in serious financial trouble.

We’ve tried just about every trick in the book; reducing interest rates, bailouts and stimulus packages. Nothing’s helped, despite the best efforts of our greatest financial analysts and wizards.

The question is: What’s really happening to our economy?

If you went to the same restaurant for years, ate great food and came out feeling fine, then, as the restaurant deteriorated you kept coming out sick after every meal, would you think your ailment stemmed from this restaurant? Of course. Would you have to be a doctor or virologist to come to this conclusion? Certainly not. All you’d need is a half a brain.

What’s the one other thing in our society that’s been deteriorating in lock step with and in almost the exact same proportions as our economy?

Ethics and morality.

Even diseases are sometimes tracked down through nothing more than logical associations. It was that initial connection between Legionnaires’ Disease and the Bellevue-Stratford Hotel in Philadelphia, for example, that eventually led to the source of Legionnaires’ Disease.

If we were to track down what’s ailing our economy in the same way scientists track down some diseases, moral and ethical decay would stick out like a soar thumb. And you don’t have to be a religious person to make this connection.

We’ve been through recessions and depressions before, but nothing like this one. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, Sunday, September 14, 2008: The depressed state of our economy is a “once in a half century, probably once in a century, type of event.”

If our moral values of yesteryear, when the economy was relatively stable, were far superior than they are today, and our moral values today, when “coincidentally” our economy is in a state of unprecedented upheaval, are at an unprecedented low, you think there might be a connection? There seems to be no other common thread.

Strangely, our predicament has an eerie resemblance to a story in the Bible — Adam and Eve getting kicked out of the Garden of Eden and their standard of living radically reduced. I’m not saying there’s a connection; that would be ridiculous. But you have to admit the resemblance is uncanny, albeit our circumstances are on a much larger scale.

What sets today’s decadence apart from that of yesteryear is that some decadent behavior today is no longer seen as wrong. In some cases, people are even proud of their decadence.

There’s probably little need to point out the areas in which morality and ethics have declined in recent years; I’m sure we can all come up with lists. But I would like to point out two areas that epitomize the problem.

Having babies out of wedlock is no longer the shame and stigma it once was. In the 1950s a movie or rock star who had a child out of wedlock created a scandal. Today, it’s announced with beaming pride. It even turns into a delightful guessing game — who’s the father? The lack of outrage by the public shows how ingrained this acceptance has become among Americans.

I understand, we live in a more enlightened age and we’re a whole lot smarter then previous generations. We certainly can’t go back to those ignorant days of yesteryear.

But if we’re so much smarter and more enlightened, how come we can’t figure our way out of the deep financial mess we’re in? This is not being facetious; this is a legitimate question. People who are smarter are usually able to figure out things that less intelligent people can’t — that’s what intelligence is. Many previous generations lived in relative comfort and luxury; we’re losing homes, jobs, nest eggs, worrying about putting food on the table, and we can’t figure out how to get out of it. Are we really smarter, or has our arrogance simply led us to blindness and stupidity?

The other glaring difference between today and years gone by is the widespread acceptance of homosexuality as just another lifestyle. What’s worse, gays have parades proclaiming how proud they are of their decadence. If you told someone only 50 years ago that this would one day be the case, they’d laugh in your face.

And the public’s attitude toward this? “Well, everyone’s got their rights.”

First, I find the public’s acquiescence to this abomination absolutely mind-boggling. Gays will have a parade anywhere they can swing it. Should you object on the basis that you don’t want your family or kids exposed to this, it’s doubtful gays would give a rat’s you know what. Gays will selfishly push their agenda on you, your family, your kids, your kids’ schools, whenever and wherever possible, regardless of how you feel about it and regardless of your right to bring up your family as you see fit. And the average American is okay with this?

This is just weakly caving in to others’ demands. If such behavior were imposed on us by a tyrant government, we’d be up in arms. But if it’s an “enlightened” perversion, that’s okay.

Gays have all the rights other citizen have. They can get jobs, start businesses, rent apartments and get (traditionally) married, like everyone else. We do not need laws to accommodate the lifestyles of people who like sleeping with the same sex, sheep or inflatable dolls. And we certainly don’t need them pushing their perversions down our throats.

The public’s acceptance of this abomination, with the often heard words, “They have their rights,” is little more than gutless, spineless passivity. We have as much right to our lifestyle as they think they have to theirs.

How would you feel about a parade through your neighborhood of fathers and daughters or mothers and sons who are proud that they live together as couples? Probably not very supportive.

How about if they were all consenting adults, didn’t hurt anyone, were so happy together, and just wanted to bring up a normal, loving family together? You’ve got to admit, these are some pretty noble intentions. To most Americans, though, this probably wouldn’t make much of a difference.

Aren’t we just a bunch of intolerant bigots and hatemongers — we have so much hatred and intolerance for fathers, mothers, sons and daughters?

Could this be an issue of morality? Well, what’s morality?

That’s a good question: what is morality, anyway? What makes one thing immoral and another thing, like washing dishes, for example, not immoral. After all, incest — among consenting adults, of course — has the potential of bringing blissful happiness to some family members. Washing dishes, on the other hand, only goes so far in bringing happiness to another family member. So shouldn’t incest be more moral than washing dishes?

The answer is that morality has nothing to do with what makes you happy or how noble your intentions are. Morality was not invented by humans. Morality has no other origin but the Bible. Accepting any traditionally immoral act as “moral” essentially does away with the entire system of morality, since there is no discernable difference between their underlying principles.

Homosexuality has always been around. But what makes it so galling today is that what has been traditionally considered an abomination has turned into an acceptable lifestyle, and supporting it has turned into a “noble” cause. How perverted has our society become?

In light of what we consider acceptable today, it makes one wonder how Sodom and Gomorrah got such a bad wrap.

Of course, you’ll always find people who don’t believe in this Biblical stuff. But what surprises me is how many people do believe in God yet never entertain the thought that what they do — in terms of right and wrong — has a direct impact on the events in their lives. God is not part of our democracy; He didn’t ask you if you want to be born, He won’t ask you when it’s time to go, and He obviously didn’t ask anyone when it was time to bring prosperity levels down a few notches.

A correlation between the decline of ethics and morality and the collapse of our economy is hard to deny. Sure you can attribute our economic problems to corporate or governmental mismanagement and go into the intimate details of what mistakes CEOs or officials made. You didn’t expect God to come down with a bunch of angel/accountants to throw things out of kilter, did you? The way it unfolded is the way it happens.

A belief in God and the basic tenets of the Bible alone do not make for a religion. We don’t have to worry that having laws based on Biblical values will make for a “government-sponsored religion.” Using time-tested principles to lay down the foundation for a society is as practical as collecting taxes.

Societies that frown upon Biblical values, like Communist states, for example, will usually allow themselves to perpetrate gross human rights violations, in many cases killing people with little more concern then killing animals.

On the other hand, when the Bible’s tenets are perverted, you can wind up with “religions” that condone murder. Neither the Ten Commandments nor the Old Testament (the root of most major religions) sanctions murder.

The seeds for our current decline were planted as far back as 1962, when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the Union Free School District No. 9 in Hyde Park, New York, had violated the First Amendment by directing the Districts’ principles to cause the following prayer to be said aloud in class: “Almighty God, we acknowledge our dependence upon Thee, and we beg Thy blessings upon us, our parents, our teachers and our Country.”

Isn’t it ironic that things have gotten so bad today that it seems as if the only one who can help us is God? It’s almost as if God is talking to us. Maybe we’re just not listening.

The way I see it, we have the choice of fighting either one of two battles. We can fight the battle to save our economy, which we’re already fighting, in futility. Or we can fight the battle to restore previous levels of ethics, morality and integrity. The difference is, if we win the latter, we win both battles; there’s a scriptural axiom: Do God’s will, and He will do yours.

J.J. Jackson asked:


Have you heard? The economy sucks. Maybe you have read about it in the newspaper, on various internet sites or even heard about it on the evening news or the radio. That is, if you can even afford to pay for newspapers, internet access or electricity to power your television without giving up important things like providing dinner for your children who are now relegated to wearing burlap sacks once filled with potatoes.

The country is in the dumper. Wages are down. People are worried about losing their jobs. Did I miss any of the big talking points? I know there are a lot more where those came from and I could fill the page with them. However, that would be a pointless exercise.

Think about those claims I mentioned above. We are inundated every day with these stories of doom and gloom and about how America is going to Hell in a hand basket. Now maybe, just maybe, if you only listened to the stories about how bad it is out there you might be determined to believe that a recession or even a depression is on the way even though we have not even met the standards of a recession yet. Or maybe you are one of those who have rewritten the truth to actually believe we are in one now?

Well ask yourself this, if everything sucks so bad, the economy is in shambles and we on the verge of (or even in) a recession then how is it that people are just blowing their cash on extremely frivolous things? Things like, oh I don’t know, going to Disney theme parks?

Yes, you heard right. In this time of such dire circumstances attendance at Disney’s parks in the United States is up 5% and revenues are up even higher - 11% give or take. In other words, not only are more people going to Disney’s parks, but they are spending more money there too.

Hmm. Interesting. Is spending lots of money on leisure something you often do as the first thing when you fear a potential economic problem? I know that there are people out there that spend money they don’t have (see the sub-prime housing fiasco for example) but I am talking to you, an intelligent human being and not some schlub who would not know how to save a dollar if their life depended on it.

As a country we are supposed to be suffering economically. We are supposed to be worried about losing our jobs and wondering if our paycheck will be handed to us twice a month on schedule and actively questioning where our next meal will be coming from. We are told that our neighbors are suffering and that they are not able to afford simple things like clothes for their children without tightening their belts beyond the last available notch. If they can even still afford a belt that is.

This is what we are told by certain people. But our eyes are drawn back to the news about Disney almost with eager interest to make these reports square with what we have been told. Maybe we are supposed to believe that people are just going out for one last fling before reality sets in, the bubble bursts and the soup lines that will stretch for blocks are formed. Maybe we are supposed to believe that these poor, deluded souls simply don’t see the impending disaster that they are told day after day is coming.

After all, things cannot be going that well. The reports and the pundits tell us otherwise. They say that it is all but over – pack up the bags and last one out please turn off the lights. We will all be panhandling for spare change before it is all said and done.

But yet we still have questions as to why Disney is doing so well and showing growth. It does not make much sense. And then it dawns on us. People can tell us anything. They can say anything they want. But just because the words are spoken doesn’t make them truthful.

I could tell you that there is an elephant under my hat or that the sky is really hot pink and not blue or that the grass is purple and not green. But you can simply look and see that such claims are not true.

The same thing is currently happening with the economy.

Now, that is not to deny that there are pockets of trouble, sectors that are struggling for various reason and that there won’t be recessions, depressions or just otherwise hard times to come. They happen. There are good times and there are bad times. And sometimes something so catastrophic happens (like say a government induced housing bubble bursting) that bad times, or at least troubled times, are unavoidable.

No one can stop them no matter how much they promise. Not even politicians promising hope and change or more government control of our lives and the economy.

But the next time someone tells you how bad it is in America and asks what you are going to do next, just smile. Then respond. “Why, I’m going to Disney World!” Just like the rest of America apparently.

Ron Randall asked:


Ok here we go.

This is my personal opinion of why the American economy is falling and just why it may get worse. For decades now we have been losing in the industrial area. Our industrial landscape or infrastructure has been declining for years. We have become a nation of consumers not builders. Not much is made in this country anymore, we are buying everyone else’s products.

We have settled for cheaper products. We have shot ourselves in the foot. We went form the building industry, to a service industry and now we are just a nation of consumers. A nation of consumers can not survive on it’s own. It has no foundation to stand on and that is where we are now.

I would not mind spending a little more for a product knowing jobs are being created and the money staying here in the America. Cheaper is not always better. Another thing is that the Global Economy has not helped the US at all. It has helped a lot of other countries except the US. Other countries are now becoming captains of industry while we fall behind. This has been happening for decades and now it is all coming to a head.

I believe it kicked in high gear with the signing of NAFTA. That really started the ball rolling. Where companies went running over seas for cheap labor and putting American people out of work and industry. This is when the economical and industrial landscape starting declining. And now here we are about to go broke as a country. Well we already are, borrowing money from other countries just to stay afloat.

We are like someone in debt that continues to borrow money and keeps sinking even deeper. We can not keep this up indefinitely. Who do we have to thank for this? You guessed it our incompetent Government. Apparently the US Government has been tearing this country down for years without any plan for building it back up. They have only been catering to big business and big money. Doing favors for those contributing to their party fundraisers. Money first people second if at all.

These people in Washington that have been voted in have not been working for America. I personally blame Congress. Meanwhile they are trying to point the finger somewhere else. They make the final decisions, and their decisions are costing us are economy. That is why we are in the economical mess right now. We need new people in Washington to work for America not themselves.

It does not matter who is President if we do not build this country from the bottom up nothing is going to work. This is why a stimulus package and tax cuts will not work. It is like a business, it is built from the ground up not from the top to bottom. The top down plan does not work. If we do not bring industry back to the US the economy will totally and completely collapse.

Todd A. Smith asked:


It has been called Issue #1. It is on the front page of major newspapers across the country, as President Bush seeks passage of a $700 billion bailout plan for financial firms. It is the struggling United States economy.

As countless Americans struggle to make ends meet as a result of rising gas prices, rising health care costs and stagnant wages, the United States economy has once again become the focal point of the 2008 presidential election. But how do John McCain and Barack Obama plan to fix the ailing United States economy and how will their proposed initiatives affect you and your family?

Obama stated, “I believe that America’s free market has been the engine of America’s great progress. It’s created a prosperity that is the envy of the world. It’s led to a standard of living unmatched in history. And it has provided great rewards to the innovators and risk-takers who have made America a beacon for science, and technology, and discovery … We are all in this together. From CEOs to shareholders, from financiers to factory workers, we all have a stake in each other’s success because the more Americans prosper, the more America prospers.”

In an effort to help Americans struggling with high fuel and food costs, McCain plans to end America’s dependence on foreign oil by ending the federal moratorium on oil exploration and drilling in the Outer Continental Shelf. The Arizona senator believes that a summer gas tax holiday from Memorial Day to Labor Day would have saved motorists $6.8 billion in taxes.

For those struggling with high mortgage costs, McCain has proposed the new “HOME Plan,” which would allow homeowners to trade their existing mortgage for a more manageable home loan.

“That plan [will require] participating lenders to forgive part of the loan principal and then write a new loan that would be backed by the federal government through the Federal Housing Administration,” wrote Tom Raum in the Tucson Citizen.

The Republican nominee favors flexible work arrangements that would allow Americans to spend more time with their families, especially their children. He plans to accomplish this by modernizing the nation’s labor laws allowing for more flexible work hours; promoting telework; which allows for less commuting; and ensuring that employees can choose the retirement plan that best fits their needs, which he thinks will boost the struggling United States economy.

Senator Obama says that the Bush tax cut to the upper-class gives the wealthiest Americans a tax cut nearly 160 times larger than tax cuts received by the middle-class, severely damaging the United States economy. He will enact a $1,000 tax cut to low-income families and eliminate income taxes for senior citizens earning less than $50,000 annually.

According to Obama’s official website, he “will invest $150 billion over 10 years to advance the next generation of biofuels and fuel infrastructure, accelerate the commercialization of plug-in hybrids, promote development of commercial scale renewable energy, invest in low emissions coal plants, and begin transition to a new digital electricity grid.”

The Democratic nominee plans to crack down on fraudulent lending practices by introducing the STOP FRAUD Act last year that defines mortgage fraud, increases funding to law enforcement agencies and creates criminal penalties for those found guilty of mortgage fraud. He is also proposing Homeowner Obligation Made Explicit (HOME), which provides future homeowners “a simplified, standardized borrower metric (similar to APR) for home mortgages.”

Obama also plans to assist working families by expanding the Family and Medical Leave Act to allow workers more time with their family during health emergencies. He wants all 50 states to adopt a paid leave system and will provide $1.5 billion to assist states in implementing this plan. He will also expand high quality afterschool programs to help working families provide a safe environment for their children at all times.

Whether Obama or McCain is the next president, the United States economy will continue to be Issue #1 to many voters. The question is can either candidate do enough to provide a stable financial future for many U.S. families?

ajax asked:


The American economy has spun into an economic meltdown, including the largest drop in GDP growth since 1980. The constant blow to the nation’s consumers has drastically reduced spending power, causing depression worries.  A widespread drop in housing prices, dips in the stock markets and insolvency by highly trusted banks have left people with no other option but to stop spending and start saving.

S&P/Case-Shiller statistics revealed that house prices in 20 big cities fell at the annual rate of 16.6%. There has also been a rise in the unemployment rate (6.1%) and is expected to move upwards further. Bloomberg forecasts that there may be another 0.2% increase in the last one month bringing the final statistics to 175,000 jobs lost. Reliable bank and credit sources have also lost shape and credit levels had already fallen to 3.7% in August.  Around the world, the Japanese and European economies are nearing recession and the global credit crunch has affected many more.

Tomorrow’s US presidential election will help decide the policies that will be in force for the next few years. Cutting taxes can leave extra cash, and credible plans for long-term fiscal health need to be put in place. Obama’s plan to put $45 billion in reserve and investing $75 billion has got him 82% support from one of the leading online discussion network, Minekey. His plans to introduce a tax credit of up to $500 per person and many more such similar benefits may work well for the economy. Economic policies that act as stimulus to the present depressing economic status can act as a catalyst in raising current standards.

Going by the trend set by people the world over, at the popular discussion network Minekey, Obama’s policies are well received and appreciated. Opinion polls conducted by Readers Digest also shows a mixed blend of nationals voting for Obama’s strong economical and financial policy proposals. A reality check on what is actually being discussed and agreed upon can be found at many of the online election sites, that have contributed to creating awareness about the current economic and political scenario. Strong recommendations on where to invest in the coming months and how well taxes can be cut down can be got from these discussion boards. They have not only generated support for the candidates, but also helped users to vote, discuss and express freely their opinions on the probable effects of these policy proposals.

What happens after November 4th, 2008 is yet to be seen. What has happened so far may go for the better or worse after the introduction of new policies. The American economy and the election’s outcome can make a huge difference in global markets. While at home, jobs can be restored and houses can be saved, markets worldwide can manage to cross over again, if this consistent slump down can be slowed down and stopped eventually. The trend may continue up to the first quarter of 2009, after which there can be seen some vital signs of improvement. Policies implemented after elections may also take its own time to restore economic normalcy and stabilization. Meanwhile, those who have managed to save and do not use credit are those who may be able to sustain the economic depression.

Klaus H Hemsath asked:


World economies are facing a triple threat. Oil reserves will be close to depletion by the year 2050. Damages from climate changes caused by escalating greenhouse gas emissions will become substantial. Rising transportation and food costs will slow economic growth rates. The results will lead to worldwide economic stagnation without hope for escape or reversal.

Future generations will have to pay dearly for the failure of previous national governments to eliminate carbon dioxide emissions and to change world energy supplies. Our dependence on fossil fuels must be terminated completely within the next three to four decades or the world will self-destruct.

Let’s us look at the facts that lead to these frightening conclusions.

Statements about petroleum reserves have been dubious in the past. In 2007, lowest figures are in the range of 1 to 1.3 trillion barrels. A figure as high as 2.3 trillion barrels has been proposed but will not find many supporters, not even in the oil industry.

At the 2006 rate of oil consumption of 31 billion barrels per year, these reserves could last 32 to 74 years. Such figures are often quoted but are much too high because annual oil consumption is continually rising. The growth rate is approximately 2% per year. Projecting steady growth to the year 2050, the actual consumption is going to be 60% higher. This increases the average annual consumption rate between 2006 and 2050 to a very realistic 50 billion barrels per year. Time to depletion is reduced to a time span of 20 years to 46 years. Most likely, neither figure is correct. However, it is reasonable to assume that a figure between 20 years and 46 years will be most likely.

Combusting 1 to 2.3 trillion barrels of oil will add a huge amount of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. The amount is 0.42 to 1 trillion tons of carbon dioxide. This huge mass will increase the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere by 55 to 125 ppm. Only a small percentage of this additional mass will be absorbed in the oceans. Most of it will lead to a substantial increase in the atmosphere’s carbon dioxide content.

During the same time, an even larger amount of carbon dioxide will be added to the atmosphere from the accelerating burning of coal and natural gas.

There is a direct connection between carbon dioxide accumulation and global temperature increase. During the last 30 years, this correlation amounted to approximately 2 degree C per 100 ppm carbon dioxide. If we accept this correlation as valid, we are faced with some very ugly numbers. During the next 46 years, we will increase the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration by at least 200 ppm. In turn, this increase will result in a rise of global temperatures by 4 degree C. This means that by the year 2050, the world will have warmed by 5 degree C! This figure is more realistic than recent IPCC forecasts.

The robust growth of world economies and the exceptionally fast increase in energy consumption in China and India will result in much higher energy consumption and in a much faster growth of greenhouse gases than originally predicted. Two other accelerating factors are the failure of the Kyoto Protocol to perceptibly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the decision of the USA to delay any countermeasures.

In view of actual, past developments and by accepting a realistic future outlook, we must draw several, inescapable conclusions. The increase of global temperatures on Earth will become faster, transportation of commodities and goods will get extremely costly, and the effects of global warming on climate change will continue to become more numerous and more destructive. This confluence of future developments will lead inescapably to a major threat to all world economies.

Once world economies begin to contract and collapse, national economies cannot marshal any longer the necessary resources that could have saved the world. Installation of effective countermeasures will require a minimum time of thirty years. Once economies contract, there will be no resources and no time left to implement solutions.

The world will have lost the ability to install any of the promising, renewable technologies, which are able to produce electricity and liquid transportation fuels without the emission of any destructive greenhouse gases. The world as we know it will cease to exist.

Roni Deutch asked:


1. Reputation Repair

With the stock market going up one day and down the next, good foreign investor relations need to be kept intact. The money we are spending on the bailout plan does not all belong to us, and it does not all go to American companies. A lot of our economic security lies in the hands of foreign investments, and the next president should work to improve these relations. We need to show investors that we can and will manage our money and policy better than in the past.

2. Prioritize Agenda

With so many important items on the agency, it is hard not to get caught up in too many things at once. History has shown us that problems ignored usually get a lot worse, and end up at the top of the list eventually any ways. Prioritizing his agenda early can save Obama both time and money and focus on getting the job done right the first time.

3. Improve Congressional Relationships

The relationship between legislative and executive branches has been negative for too long. If we could make this relationship more open and less attacking perhaps they might come to more well rounded, honest decisions. It is hard to get any bill passed into law with an unhappy congress, so keeping the relationships friendly and professional will benefit the country as a whole.

4. Reduce Outsourcing

With the tough economy, more and more companies are looking to outsource their manufacturing. However, the problem is that doing so can make the economy even worse. While it may be cheaper for a company to outsource, it gives valuable jobs to other countries. If the government could give these companies some incentive to produce their goods at home it would create more American jobs, and benefit the whole economy.

5. New Energy Policies

Obama needs to come up with a clear and concise energy policy that addresses foreign oil dependency as well as all of our individual dependency on oil. Exploring, funding, and distributing alternative energy will save the country billions in the long run and can create “green collar” jobs in the meantime.

6. Promote Innovations

By funding and rewarding technological and medical innovation and discovery, we can increase our countries competitiveness in the global market. These new discoveries will provide a service to all Americans who benefits from them, and by developing ways to reduce our dependence on foreign oil we can stop sending so much of our money to foreign producers.

7. Market Regulation

By closely monitoring trading activity and spending, we can help prevent market manipulation and hopefully prevent another mess like the one we are in now. Barack Obama was quoted as saying, “the American economy does not stand still, and neither should the rules that govern it. Old institutions cannot adequately oversee new practices. Old rules may not fit the roads where our economy is leading.”