US Economy Forecasts

Kelli Smith asked:


The news keeps coming in, and it’s not encouraging. Declining home prices and the resulting slowdown in the American economy have put manufacturers, investment bankers, and retail employees out of work. With less to spend on luxuries–and less credit from banks and lenders to draw on for large purchases–less money is circulating through the market. Industry analysts fear that this cycle could have long ranging effects on the U.S. job market. Fortunately, there’s a light at the end of the tunnel.

Ethan Harris, chief United States economist for Lehman Brothers, describes the U.S.’s current economic woes as a “slow-motion recession.” According to Harris, “In a normal recession, things kind of collapse and you have nowhere to go but up. But we’re not getting the classic two or three negative quarters. Instead, we’re expecting two years of sub-par growth.”

In the meantime, job seekers can look to other parts of the economy for career security. According to outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas, at least five areas should see steady growth and offer excellent career prospects in the coming years.

Recession Proof Career # 1: Healthcare

Health care is one area of the economy where growth has been little affected by the credit crunch. Employment of nurses has remained especially high: currently the largest healthcare occupation (employing 2.5 million), nurses are expected to add another 587,000 new jobs to the workforce by 2016. In 2007, registered nurses earned a median salary of $60,010.

The need for new applicants has grown at such an alarming rate that many employers are recruiting workers laid off in other sectors of the economy. Faced with a growing patient population, Clair Young, chief nursing officer at the Cleveland Clinic, wants to add 300 new nurses to her staff of 3,800. The applicants are being lured from other parts of the economy with tuition reimbursement and flexible schedules. “Unfortunately,” says Young, “one of (our) strategies is capitalizing on the recession.”



Recession Proof Career #2: Energy

With high demand for fuel causing widespread uproar, energy companies have generated tremendous profits and may need to expand their workforces. In February, Exxon Mobil posted the highest profits ever recorded by a company, with net income rising 3 percent to $40.6 billion (The company’s $404 billion in sales exceeded the gross domestic product of 120 countries). Reacting to backlash from groups disgusted at the high profits, Exxon revealed the scope of its investment in discovering and developing new sources of energy: more than $80 billion between 2002 and 2006, and an additional $20 billion in 2008.

The turmoil of gas prices and the effort to implement alternative fuel sources have spawned tremendous growth in environmental engineering. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), environmental engineers should expect employment growth “much faster than average” through 2016, with an estimated 25 percent more jobs to open in the field. Job seekers can take advantage of these projected openings by earning a bachelor’s degree in environmental engineering. And if tuition costs have you pondering the decision, keep in mind that environmental engineers earned a median salary of $72,350 in 2007.



Recession Proof Career #3: Education

Over the coming decade, careers in education–higher education in particular–are expected to remain stable. Fred Crowley, economist of the University of Colorado at Colorado Springs, notes that UCCS typically enrolls more graduate students during a recession. And though during the last recession the university coped with hiring freezes and frozen wage increases, Crowley noted, “No one actually lost their jobs here.”

In K-12 education careers, opportunities are likewise expected to remain welcoming. According to the National Center for Education Statistics, increased retirement, higher student enrollment, and teacher turnover should add 2.8 million teachers to the workforce over the next eight years, with the greatest gains at the preschool and kindergarten levels. Though surprising to some, kindergarten teachers earned a median salary of $45,120 in 2007.



Recession Proof Career #4: Security

Though the economy may have its ups and downs, the importance of local and national security personnel remains constant. The Department of Defense and the Department of Homeland Security may need to fill an additional 83,000 jobs over 2008 and 2009. In order to help train new applicants, many universities and colleges are offering associate’s degrees and bachelor’s degrees in homeland security, as well as certificate programs in security.

Additionally, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics expects employment of police officers and detectives to grow about as fast as the average for all occupations–7 to 13 percent–between 2006 and 2016.

Recession Proof Career #5: International Business

Although the recent banking and credit crunch has sent painful shockwaves through the world economy, a few international business careers should remain stable, even during a recession–in particular, finance and accounting careers. Steve Birkshire, Regis University professor explains, “(b)ecause of the issues with Enron and all new requirements–combined with the shortage in the field–that’s going to keep accountants in business. They’re really protected.” According to the BLS, job openings for accountants will increase by roughly 18 percent through 2016, with the best prospects for those with a college degree and/or CPA certification.

A Golden Opportunity

Job hunters may wonder what it will take to land a job in the new economy. Experts advise job seekers to keep an open mind. Nelson Bolles, author of What Color is Your Parachute, advises job hunters to grow comfortable working “in the service of new technologies.” Staying involved in continuing education is also important. Relevant coursework in new job skills–especially computers and software applications–are a must-have for today’s job hunter, and many recession-resistant jobs require extensive postsecondary education. Most importantly, however, job seekers should maintain a positive attitude.

C. Hand asked:


By Dr. Richard Bayer

It’s no big secret: The economy stinks, the stock market is struggling, and businesses everywhere are taking drastic cost-cutting measures just to keep their doors open. And if you are one of the “costs” that have recently been cut—or if you just see the handwriting on the wall—you’re feeling America’s financial crisis in a very painful and personal way. It’s tempting to crawl under the covers and hide out until the crisis is over, but you simply don’t have that luxury. You’d better get busy preparing and executing your own layoff recovery plan.

            No one enjoys looking for a job, even in the best of times—which these clearly aren’t. It’s a process fraught with stress, rejection, and a lot of tedious leg work. But with a smart strategy for handling your finances, managing your time, and executing your search, you can turn what could be a full-on disaster into merely a bump in the road.       Approach the time immediately after you’ve been laid off with the same sense of purpose you felt with your job. Resist the urge to think of unemployment as the end of the world, no matter how upsetting it may be. Think of it, instead, as an opportunity to improve yourself and to make a fresh start. You can end up better off than you were before you got the ax.

The fundamental rules for surviving your job loss are simpler than you think. Read on for some tips to help you survive—and thrive—after the proverbial pink slip has been laid on your desk:

Negotiate the best possible severance package. (Hint: Don’t automatically go for the cash!) There are two keys to getting the best possible severance package. First, whether it’s the cash settlement or career coaching benefits, negotiate each item individually. This will give you more leverage. Second, decide what you want out of a severance package, without regard for the company’s policy. Many employees simply don’t know what they can ask for in their severance talks, but it pays to research this issue and give it some careful thought.

When you approach the severance issue, think of what will truly benefit you in the long term. Health insurance, for example, costs the company less than it would cost you. You can also ask for one year of career coaching and the right to select the coaching service. People often underestimate how much time it will take them to find a new job, so they accept cash for the entire settlement. The reality is the time in between jobs can be far less worrisome when your health insurance is covered and you have career coaching to help you stay positive and find a great new job. Cash may ease the pain in the short term, but it’s these other benefits that will set you up the best if you are searching for a job for a long period of time.

Don’t take it personally. Lay offs are usually the result of budget cuts and lack of business—and not a direct result of poor performance. Remember that lots of good people get downsized, and in today’s economy it’s happening more than ever. If you are the company’s most recent hire, or if your department is being cut out all together, your position can be in jeopardy regardless of how well you’ve done your job. But perhaps the most important thing to remember is that you’re being laid off because your employer is having trouble in a tough economy—which doesn’t mean that you can’t still be a valuable employee to someone else.

Seventy-eight percent of the unemployed people who belong to The Five O’Clock Club get a job whose salary is equal to or more than their previous pay. And while it’s not always possible to achieve that in our current tight economy, there are still plenty of companies that are in desperate need of quality employees. We stress this fact at The Five O’Clock Club. Remember that there is something else out there for you, and chances are, it’s a great opportunity that will improve your future.

Live as though finding a new job is your job. If you are used to showing up at the office from nine to five every day, it can be daunting to suddenly have hours of unscheduled time on your hands. You need to find a way to maintain the structure in your life and to keep some sort of day-to-day routine. A great way to do this is by using your old work hours to focus on your job search. Use that time to join trade organizations, schedule interviews, and network as much as possible.

At The Five O’Clock Club, we recommend that an unemployed person spend at least 40 hours a week on his or her search. If you do this, you’ll find that you have less time to lament your recent lay off and less time to sink into the negative thought patterns that are associated with it. Once your search pays off, you’ll be glad you quickly hunkered down and devoted so much time to finding a new job that’s right for you.

Manage your money responsibly. Whether you receive severance pay or not, the way you manage your money immediately after being laid off will determine your worry level during the foreseeable future. If a cash settlement is part of your severance package, you might be tempted to maintain your current living status while you search for a new job. However, that money can disappear quickly, especially if you are left to pay for your own benefits. Most people assume that they will find a new job within 30 days of their job loss and are surprised that it can actually take much longer. Create a budget so that you can see how long you can live off of your severance pay. To make your severance money last as long as possible, cut back on any unnecessary living expenses for the time being and get started on your search sooner rather than later.

If you didn’t receive any severance money, you’ll also want to create a post-job budget as soon as possible. Take a look at how much money you have, which bills are coming due, and what expenses you won’t be able to cut. Make sure you can pay your critical bills—mortgage, car payment, insurance—and don’t spend money on anything extra. You may have to cancel an upcoming vacation or get rid of your cable TV, but you will be glad in six month’s time that you didn’t rack up credit card debt and that your savings is still intact.

Expand your search. Just because you worked for a large corporation in a large city doesn’t mean that’s the only type of job you are qualified to do. If you are searching only in Los Angeles, for example, think of looking outside the city or even in a different state. Or if you are looking only at large public corporations, consider small or private companies.

Your personal talents can lend themselves to a variety of different job titles. You just have to be open to them. Searching for a job outside your comfort zone can sometimes open you up to some great unexpected opportunities.

Be picky. If the bills keep rolling in and your paychecks have long since stopped, it can be easy to panic and take the first job that’s offered. Don’t leap into the wrong job. It’s important that you take your time, keep your cool, and ultimately make the right decision for you.

If money is low, get an interim job. It may not be something you would want to do in the long term, but it will provide you with a steady paycheck during your job search. That way you’ll have money coming in and you will be free to keep searching until you’ve found the right job for you. Taking the wrong job and ending up being miserable could cause a string of job hops that will cost you valuable time and effort.

Start your own business. While it may not be feasible for you to start your own small business from the ground up—complete with angel investors and expensive staff members—it may be just the time for you to put your talents to work as a freelancer. Are you a prolific writer or a graphics guru? Use your business savvy to start freelancing while you’re searching for a new job. It can provide a cushion of income in between jobs and maybe even continue to supplement you once you’ve landed a new gig.

Even better, the business in the meantime will keep your skills sharp and provide great references for your résumé. And doing work in between jobs can show a potential employer that you are motivated and that your skills are desirable.

Now, more than ever, is when being proactive counts the most. We live in an economy where there are fewer jobs and more people looking for them, and the competition is tough. This is just the reality. And as hard as it may seem at the time, the more objective that you can be about your job loss, the better the end result you will create for yourself. Don’t let losing your job define who you are; let the way you handle it define who you will be.

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About the Book:

The Good Person Guidebook: Transforming Your Personal Life (Five O’Clock Books, 2008, ISBN: 978-0-944054-16-1, $14.95) is available at www.amazon.com.

For more information, please visit www.fiveoclockclub.com.

Christina Archer asked:


If you turn on the television, or open up a newspaper, you know the bad news: the economy is headed toward recession. Gas prices are at all time highs, and companies are cutting back on their help. Does this all have to affect you - the job seeker? Not at all!

We’ll discuss the secrets to landing your dream job in a tough economy. First of all, we’ll discuss the concept of marketing your skills and experience to employers; versus simply applying for jobs. Secondly, we create a set of metrics you can utilize when making your employer-contacts, to ensure you receive the appropriate number of positive responses you are seeking. Finally, we’ll go over options for individuals who wish to hire a reputable company to market their skills and experience, so that the entire job search process can be completed in the most seamless manner.

When you think of beginning a job search, most of us have the idea of browsing the employment classifieds, finding open positions that match our desire, and then emailing or faxing our latest resume. This is a very simple process, in theory. Think of the number of applicants one single advertisement can illicit. How are you going to differentiate yourself from the volumes of other applicants who are also attempting to obtain the very same position?

It’s time to adjust our thinking on applying for a job, from being “an applicant,” to actively marketing your professional skills, experience and background. When you approach the career search from a marketing perspective, with a solid marketing plan, you soon find that you’ll begin receiving more job offers, and less turn-down letters.

Marketing in of itself, is a numbers game. Marketing yourself to a company as their next super star, requires that you make a certain number of contacts each day until you receive the job offer that hits your target. The sooner you need to make an employment change, the higher the number of contacts you will need to make on a daily basis. Many individuals find it helpful to submit their resume through a targeted resume distribution service. This is one way to reach hundreds of employers, with minimal effort. For the job candidate who wishes to make a change as soon as possible, it’s important to make between 5 and 20 applications per week. Keep in mind, it’s necessary to first research the companies who hire within your field, determine the locations you are willing to work, and then contact the hiring managers.

You may be asking yourself, how is a job seeker supposed to find time for an active career search, along with current professional and family commitments? The entire job search process can be handled from beginning to end, by a professional candidate management company. These companies run daily searches on behalf of the job seeker, market the individual’s skills, background and experience to target companies, and guarantee results. Unlike working with the “traditional headhunter,” a candidate management service or career search company, takes a pro-active approach to the job search, on behalf of the job seeker, for a reasonable fee. This completely changes the dynamic of the recruiting process for companies, and puts more control into the hands of the job applicant.

Difficult financial times, require drastic measures. Finding your dream job will effectively change your life, and the life of your family. Instead of allowing your career to take a “back-seat” during a tough economy, it’s time to become a proactive career seeker. The true secret to landing your target job, is moving your perspective from that of passive job applicant, to an effective career skills marketer.