US Economy Forecasts

Michael Montague asked:


A declining economy affects many businesses. Many times these businesses cut the marketing and advertising dollars first in an attempt to trim the budget.  Sometimes this is justified, but most of the time it is a huge mistake.

When the economy is slow, it is the perfect opportunity to reach new prospects and grow your market share while your competition is doing nothing.  Most likely, much of the clutter and noise in your market has cleared out, and you will have a much stronger voice. When the economy turns back around, and it will, you will be in a much better position than your competitors!

However, in a slow economy, it is more important than ever to squeeze every last penny out of your marketing and promotional dollars.  Taking a more targeted approach with your advertising effort is the key.  Use your broad format advertising dollars from print, television, or radio and use it in a marketing campaign where you can track results and focus on a key demographic.  If you are still purchasing media, now is the time to lock in long term rates, as these entities are hurting and will likely accept a low rate with a long term agreement from you.

Explore a referral marketing plan where you have absolutely no risk.  Qualify your referrals so that you’re not spending a dime unless you’re getting additional business from a referral.  Now is the perfect time for this, as your customers want a reward, and you want another customer. Referrals often increase your market share, because your customers will think of people already using your product or service. All you need to do is come up with a worthy referral gift, start calling your customers, and ask for a referral. Once again, qualify all referrals before you reward them. A referral is deemed qualified when they have spent an appropriate amount with you.

Do you have hunters or gatherers on your sales staff? In tough times, you are going to need people who seek out the new business, cold call, and work your prospects effectively. It is more important than ever to keep your sales teams focused, so explore ways to incentivize and reward them for hitting goals. While all other companies are making cut backs, show your employees that you’re still willing to reward those who perform.  This easy step will motivate your team, raise morale, and will ultimately drive your sales higher and higher.  Once again, this in an expense that pays for itself with low risk, as you spend nothing unless a sales goal is achieved.

Form partnerships with compatible companies.  Opportunities to save money are everywhere, you just have to ask.  Chances are that at least one company you know is interested in a co-op campaign or event driven marketing activity.  After all, everyone needs new marketing opportunities, and they are looking to save money just like you!

When the economy turns around, there will be winners and there will be losers.  Have you positioned your company to be one of the winners?

Bob Urichuck asked:


Maintaining sales motivation in an uncertain economy is tough when we become a product of that environment. As the world is discussing the downturn in the economy more and more, we are also attracting a downturn in our behaviors. We spend less, do less and wait it out. That is the wrong thing to do!

Wake up! Refuse to be part of any negative environment or uncertain economy. It will only bring you down. It will change your beliefs, your attitude, the way you feel, the actions you take and the results you get. You need to maintain your sales motivation and sales results.

You are a professional and have to maintain professionalism in all that you do. That means, to keep doing what you have always done, and when the going gets tough, the tough get going and do more. That is sales motivation.

This is not the time to slow down, or to waste time discussing the economy. It is time to step up and do more! This is the time of opportunity. It is not the economy that will or will not give you the results you are looking for.

It is your attitude towards the economy and the behavior! That you demonstrate on a daily basis. Your attitude and your behavior is your motivation towards sales results.

You attitude stems from your beliefs. What do you believe about today’s economy? How long do you think it will last? How do you think customers will react to your products and services during this downturn? And most importantly, how will you react?

Your answers to these questions above will determine your level of sales professional motivation. If you believe that this is the time of opportunity - opportunity to sell more, as your competition downsizes, opportunity to hire highly skilled labor, as they are being let go, or opportunity to expand as prices fall, you will gain positive results. However, the opposite is also true.

Be aware of your beliefs as they will affect your attitude and behaviors. If you maintain a positive attitude, your actions will be demonstrated in your behaviors and will attract positive results. Sales motivation starts with your beliefs and ends with your reactions to those beliefs

Believe in who you are, and what you do. Believe in your organization, it’s products and services, team members and the market your sell into. Believe there is opportunity out there and you will find it.

Be disciplined, continue to do what you have to do, even when you do not want to do it and you will maintain sales motivation, in certain and uncertain economies.

Simon P Smith asked:


Unless you have been living under a rock for the past few months you will no doubt have noticed the economy and financial markets are failing.

A Forcast Event

Many financial strategist have been discussing this for quite some time. Robert Kiyosaki even wrote a book about it titled “Prophecy”. Written in 2002 it discusses why the biggest stock market crash in history is still coming and how you can prepare yourself and profit from it.

Now it is here we can no longer shrug it off as some silly “doom and gloom” view… .

If it is going to be as bad as the gloom and doom merchants in the media are wanting us to belive most people haven’t felt the pinch yet. Any financial strain you’ve felt so far is just the tip of the iceberg compared to what’s headed our way. And the biggest impact will be on the middle class around Christmas.

Understandably, many people are scared as their financial future is far from being secure. Having said that it is not the time to be stuffing your money into your mattress or hiding under the bed.

You shouldn’t do that, nor should you panic. The regulators around the world are working hard and taking swift action to bring stability to the market. The best thing you can do is ride out the short-term ups and downs with just a few prudent adjustments where necessary until it all shakes out.

The Smart People are Planning Their Future

Don’t get caught in what I call the “herd mentality”. A little rule I have used myself when I find myself in a tight spot is ask myself “What is the herd doing?” And then do the exact opposite. Now is the time to take a common sense approach. Following are a few tips for a failing economy you may find useful:-

What You Shouldn’t Do

* Bail out. Right now everyone is running around dumping stocks or equity mutual funds now. This is silly as the values are especially low and it is simply guaranteeing that you’ll turn paper losses into real ones. Even if there’s more downside to come, staying on course often pays off during times of economic uncertainty. You’ll only realise a loss if you sell. What happens after a recession? A Boom. What happens after the sun sets in the west? It rises in the east.

* Stop saving. Those regular contributions you’ve been making to your savings or retirement accounts are an important part of good financial discipline, and there’s no reason to stop them now. The strategy of dollar-cost averaging your investments-making periodic contributions to your accounts, regardless of where the market is heading is still good advice.

* Speculate. While lower prices for investments create opportunities, betting on the markets can easily get you into trouble, especially with the wild swings we’re seeing now. Small, measured investments are usually better than large, hasty ones intended to make a quick killing. Be especially wary if you get tips from e-mail, the Internet, or elsewhere for certain stocks, commodities, and other “once-in-a-lifetime” opportunities

* Take on new debt. Be careful about acquiring new debt. Economic downturns can affect job stability and investment income, making it difficult to determine how much debt you can handle.If you must borrow, say, to put a child through college or make an emergency repair to your home, be doubly sure that you’ve examined all the options and risks, especially if you’re planning to use the equity in your home

* Stop living. Although these times demand extra caution, there’s such a thing as over-reacting. Whether it’s buying gifts for the holidays or taking your family on vacation, life has to go on. And some cutbacks can have negative consequences for your wallet, such as putting off maintenance for your house or car or canceling insurance policies. So don’t overreact. Instead reflect carefully and, where necessary, adjust.

What You Should Do

* Get your finances in order. There’s never been a better time to make a budget and start paying down your debt, credit card and otherwise

* Rethink your plans to retire. If you’re expecting to retire soon, consider holding off for a while, if possible, until things calm down. That will give you time to reassess and, if need be, modify your plans

* Speak with your financial adviser. With end-of-the-year tax planning an annual ritual, now is a good time to make an appointment with your tax adviser no matter what the economic outlook. He or she may have some advice on how to tweak your finances as you ride out the current storm.

* Consider a Plan B. Instead of being scared, I’m encouraging you to look at starting or ramping up your Plan B. It’s never been more important than it is right now to re-plan how you make your money.

You need to do something different to create a stable financial future for yourself. One of the easiest ways to to this is to have your own home based business.

Now is the time to take action and learn how to build your own home based business… to apply yourself… to work smarter not harder … to find the time to get it done.

So what’s the smartest thing a person can do to build their own home based business, or any small business in this economy-successfully, and without a lot of risk?

Network Marketing has been hailed by many as the ideal home based business. Network Marketing is the best home based business opportunity particularly if you find a mentor in the network marketing business of your choice. This is a great short cut to home based business success as the mentor has already successfully travelled the road you want to travel. Consider this network marketing mentor option.

khalid r mustaffa asked:


Car manufacturers invest millions of dollars annually on research and development; this is to improve every aspect of their cars by the next manufacturing batch. Of course, it is taken into consideration that fuel economy became more important to car shopper than they ever were. This is due to the fact that drivers around the nation are experiencing all time high gas prices. Nowadays gas saving products and additives are being advertised for like no time before. Yet the advertised fuel economy in 2008 car models is lower than 2007 car models. At least this is what you are about to witness if you go to a car dealership, and compare the 2007 to the 2008 of same make and model.

The good news is that the research and development investments are not being wasted, and the manufactures did not neglect the fuel efficiency factor, better yet, those 2007 are indifferent to the 2008 models as far as fuel efficiency is concerned, but are more realistic. Yes, the EPA has finally decided to tweak the way it measures fuel economy, the numbers you will starting 2008 models is going to be more realistic. I am as most of you are aware, a numbers oriented person, yet find it hard to remember monitoring a car that gave the announced Gas mileage. Well, basically because I am not old enough. The standards for measuring fuel economy you see around have not changed since 1984, back when the highway speed limits hardly reached 55 miles an hour. Obviously, it’s a different world now, where highway speed limits are reaching at some parts of country 80 miles per hour.

On a concluding note, it is worth quoting the EPA spokesman on this issue. John Millett said “Driving has changed so much, since we last updated the method in 1984, that we were due for a change,” says. “We have faster interstate highway speeds, 65 to 70 miles an hour in some areas, up from 55. We also have a lot more vehicles equipped with air conditioning.”For more information about selling your car, check out the Estimated Fuel Economy Drops in Every 2008 Make and Model

Stephen Long asked:


t better fuel economy? This is a question that seems to be on everyone’s mind these days. Simply drive by a gas station and you probably cringe each time as you watch prices continually rise. Oil prices are rising, and gas prices are reflecting this rise in oil prices as well. In the past year, gas prices have gone up more than $1 per gallon, and the prices are really beginning to hurt the wallet of Americans these days. Fuel economy is a hot topic, and no doubt you’re looking for ways that you can get better fuel economy. Well, here are some easy ways that you can start working on getting better fuel economy, which will save you money each time you fill up with gas.

Make Sure Your Air Filters are Working Properly - Making sure that your air filters are working properly is one way to get better fuel economy. You can really improve the gas mileage that your car gets when you make sure to replace any air filters that become clogged. The air filter in your car helps to keep impurities from getting through and causing engine damage. They also can help you save on gas, and studies show that they can improve the mileage that you’re getting by about 10%, which really can help.

Use the Right Motor Oil for Your Vehicle - Using the right motor oil for your vehicle can help you get better fuel economy as well. You can improve the mileage that your car gets by a couple percentage points when you make sure that you are using the right motor oil for your car. If you use the wrong type of engine oil, you can lower your gas mileage, but using the right oil that is recommended by the car manufacturer will help you get the best performance and gas mileage.

Get an Engine Tune Up - An engine tune up can really help you save money on gas. In fact, it can help your fuel economy so much that you can save about $0.16 on every gallon that you buy. It’s important that you keep your engine tuned up and make sure that the car passes emissions tests as well. Serious problems with your car such as problems with oxygen sensors can really take down your gas mileage, so make sure you keep the engine tuned up.

Don’t Let Tire Pressure Drop - Don’t let the tire pressure drop in your tires either if you want better fuel economy. You’ll be able to get more than 3% better gas mileage when you keep your tires well inflated. Take a look at the recommended tire pressure for your tires, and then keep your tires there to make sure you get the best fuel economy possible.

Hammad Khalid asked:


On February 4, 2008, the World Bank issued a Quarterly report on the Chinese economical situation, pointing out a high growth in early 2007, apparently setting a record among all developing economies around the world, however, by the start of 2008, China’s economical growth started to go little bit sluggish, and a rise in food prices pushed the inflation level to a new hike. In the fourth quarter of 2007, the growth slack was mainly caused by an exterior recession in demand which caused a rise in net import factor. With food price’s rising impetus in December 2007, the currency inflation rate climbed to a 7.6%, in the mean time the total demand surplus could have been another reason in inducing a comprehensive inflation. ??

 

The bank’s “Quarterly report” indicates that the attenuated global economic prospect which has appeared recently has some uncertainties, and in 2008 the Chinese economy would still be maintaining a strong growth rate while promoting a demand helpful for its global growth.

 

World Bank’s China Bureau Chief Mr. Du Da Wei said: ” Although the global economic growth will be on a hold and it might would affect China’s export as well as the trade department’s investment, but the domestic demand should maintain an exuberant tendency, and this kind of global economic defer will be helpful in balancing the Chinese economy. “

 

The World Bank forecasts that by the end of 2008, China’s GDP will have a stable growth rate of 9.6%. Since the prospect uncertainty requires vigilance of the financial institutions’ considering flexibility in strategy, even if the global economic growth slows down, under a strong macro economic crisis situation, China will opt to regulate the credit controls and demand promotion through relaxation in financial policy. The report pointed out that the macroeconomic policy needs to solve the remuneration factor that continuously exists in inflation scenario. By the mid of 2008, the overall price hike pressure would be alleviated to some extent. China’s monetary policy will continue to depend upon the credit control and the flow management.

 

The RMB will continue to grow stronger and it might push the USD down to few points by the end of 2008, which will be helpful in reducing the inflation pressure. Although the Chinese government has adopted financial policy to suppress the rise in price and price stability on long term basis, but in the long run, these measures will produce adverse effects which will possibly surpass the advantage that it will bring. In view of the fact that China has strong pecuniary conditions, the authorities may consider some substitutes for certain price control methods with special direct grants and a balance economic growth to ensure foreign exchange’s domestic stability.

Kelli Smith asked:


The news keeps coming in, and it’s not encouraging. Declining home prices and the resulting slowdown in the American economy have put manufacturers, investment bankers, and retail employees out of work. With less to spend on luxuries–and less credit from banks and lenders to draw on for large purchases–less money is circulating through the market. Industry analysts fear that this cycle could have long ranging effects on the U.S. job market. Fortunately, there’s a light at the end of the tunnel.

Ethan Harris, chief United States economist for Lehman Brothers, describes the U.S.’s current economic woes as a “slow-motion recession.” According to Harris, “In a normal recession, things kind of collapse and you have nowhere to go but up. But we’re not getting the classic two or three negative quarters. Instead, we’re expecting two years of sub-par growth.”

In the meantime, job seekers can look to other parts of the economy for career security. According to outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas, at least five areas should see steady growth and offer excellent career prospects in the coming years.

Recession Proof Career # 1: Healthcare

Health care is one area of the economy where growth has been little affected by the credit crunch. Employment of nurses has remained especially high: currently the largest healthcare occupation (employing 2.5 million), nurses are expected to add another 587,000 new jobs to the workforce by 2016. In 2007, registered nurses earned a median salary of $60,010.

The need for new applicants has grown at such an alarming rate that many employers are recruiting workers laid off in other sectors of the economy. Faced with a growing patient population, Clair Young, chief nursing officer at the Cleveland Clinic, wants to add 300 new nurses to her staff of 3,800. The applicants are being lured from other parts of the economy with tuition reimbursement and flexible schedules. “Unfortunately,” says Young, “one of (our) strategies is capitalizing on the recession.”



Recession Proof Career #2: Energy

With high demand for fuel causing widespread uproar, energy companies have generated tremendous profits and may need to expand their workforces. In February, Exxon Mobil posted the highest profits ever recorded by a company, with net income rising 3 percent to $40.6 billion (The company’s $404 billion in sales exceeded the gross domestic product of 120 countries). Reacting to backlash from groups disgusted at the high profits, Exxon revealed the scope of its investment in discovering and developing new sources of energy: more than $80 billion between 2002 and 2006, and an additional $20 billion in 2008.

The turmoil of gas prices and the effort to implement alternative fuel sources have spawned tremendous growth in environmental engineering. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), environmental engineers should expect employment growth “much faster than average” through 2016, with an estimated 25 percent more jobs to open in the field. Job seekers can take advantage of these projected openings by earning a bachelor’s degree in environmental engineering. And if tuition costs have you pondering the decision, keep in mind that environmental engineers earned a median salary of $72,350 in 2007.



Recession Proof Career #3: Education

Over the coming decade, careers in education–higher education in particular–are expected to remain stable. Fred Crowley, economist of the University of Colorado at Colorado Springs, notes that UCCS typically enrolls more graduate students during a recession. And though during the last recession the university coped with hiring freezes and frozen wage increases, Crowley noted, “No one actually lost their jobs here.”

In K-12 education careers, opportunities are likewise expected to remain welcoming. According to the National Center for Education Statistics, increased retirement, higher student enrollment, and teacher turnover should add 2.8 million teachers to the workforce over the next eight years, with the greatest gains at the preschool and kindergarten levels. Though surprising to some, kindergarten teachers earned a median salary of $45,120 in 2007.



Recession Proof Career #4: Security

Though the economy may have its ups and downs, the importance of local and national security personnel remains constant. The Department of Defense and the Department of Homeland Security may need to fill an additional 83,000 jobs over 2008 and 2009. In order to help train new applicants, many universities and colleges are offering associate’s degrees and bachelor’s degrees in homeland security, as well as certificate programs in security.

Additionally, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics expects employment of police officers and detectives to grow about as fast as the average for all occupations–7 to 13 percent–between 2006 and 2016.

Recession Proof Career #5: International Business

Although the recent banking and credit crunch has sent painful shockwaves through the world economy, a few international business careers should remain stable, even during a recession–in particular, finance and accounting careers. Steve Birkshire, Regis University professor explains, “(b)ecause of the issues with Enron and all new requirements–combined with the shortage in the field–that’s going to keep accountants in business. They’re really protected.” According to the BLS, job openings for accountants will increase by roughly 18 percent through 2016, with the best prospects for those with a college degree and/or CPA certification.

A Golden Opportunity

Job hunters may wonder what it will take to land a job in the new economy. Experts advise job seekers to keep an open mind. Nelson Bolles, author of What Color is Your Parachute, advises job hunters to grow comfortable working “in the service of new technologies.” Staying involved in continuing education is also important. Relevant coursework in new job skills–especially computers and software applications–are a must-have for today’s job hunter, and many recession-resistant jobs require extensive postsecondary education. Most importantly, however, job seekers should maintain a positive attitude.

Adrian Adams asked:


The Bulgarian economy has suffered from many of the setbacks that are so common among eastern European countries. It has gone through many trials and tribulations during the last few decades, and there are still large amounts of poverty, and people with poor standards of living. It is an economy largely based on industry and agriculture. Here I will discuss several of the main facets of the Bulgarian economy, and hopefully you will become more closely acquainted with it. It is always a good idea to be familiar with all the possible players in the world market, and Bulgaria is definitely one of them.

As I said, industry is very important to Bulgaria. It is home to some of the most high capacity nuclear plants in the world, outputting thousands of megawatts to the region. Unlike many other countries including the USA, Bulgaria is progressive when it comes to new nuclear technology. But nuclear isn’t the only type of power used in Bulgaria. The Maritza Iztok plant is a state of the art thermal power plant, which was recently approved for an expansion that will more than double its output, costing over 1 billion dollars to do. Other important industries include metallurgy and electronics, with factories established all across the country that usually operate at full production capacity.

Farming in Bulgaria has increased steadily in recent years. Some farmers use it as a way to eat, and others export a good deal of produce to other parts of Europe. Compared to other agricultural economies in that part of the world, Bulgaria has a decent amount of machinery such as combines, tractors, and harvesters to get the job done. Besides basic crops like wheat and maize, Bulgaria exports delicious fruits like apples, strawberries, watermelons, and grapes. The standard of living in Bulgaria fell drastically in 1989 when the Comecon market was lost. The economy crashed again in 1996. Since then, they have been on a steady path upward, and are now past where they were at the time of the crash.

If you visit Bulgaria, you will probably be surprised at their welfare. The name might conjure up images of small villages caked with mud, but this is not the case at all. It is a marvelous country that has had its share of unfortunate problems, but has persevered through and ended up with an amazing culture and more than its share of historical buildings and landmarks.

Vladimir Gonzalez asked:


Italian Economy

Once one of the most dominant political, military and economic nations in the world, Italy, now called the ‘Sick Man of Europe’, underwent an era of rapid industrialization after the World Wars. With a population of 58 million in 2007, and a GDP of nearly $1.8 trillion, Italy occupies place ten among the largest economies in the world, in terms of purchasing power parity, and seventh place, in terms of nominal GDP.

Once World War II had come to an end, Italy was at the heart of western European institutions, like NATO, G8, the OECD, and the European Union. From an agricultural economy Italy rapidly changed to being a highly developed industrial power, and at the moment an economy ruled by service industry, making up 69 per cent of Italy’s economy, followed by industry 29 per cent and agriculture 2 per cent.

Having a small but solid medium enterprise sector, and robust family businesses, Italy has achieved less success trying to establish multinational corporations. Worldwide famous brand names from the fashion world, or automotive industries, were once family businesses. Lamborghini, Ferrari, and Alfa Romeo were all once family businesses but are now owned by Audi (in Germany) or FIAT.

Even if most of the level of technological sophistication these companies have is not very high, they are subject to increased pressures from a globalised economy, in which manufactured goods can easily be made even cheaper, anywhere else. In this background, in 2007 these growth rates were slowed to no more and mo less than to zero, with the GDP growth at 1.5 per cent, just above the previous average.

Recently, Italy has been confronted with many difficulties, such as high levels of corruption, organized crime, high levels of unemployment and external debt, illegal immigration together with the difference between the north, and the south, rich vs. poor. The repeated attempts to bring down the level of debt from 124 per cent of the GDP, as registered in 1995, were now crowned with success, and now it is still nearly 100 per cent. In the north, unemployment has declined steadily, currently averaged 6 per cent, while in the south it reaches over 20 per cent.

Italy has succeeded in time to manage the level of inflation, a major problem for Italy, but even so, it thought that prices have been doubled, once the Euro has been introduced, and thanks to the increased levels of corruption. In 2000 Italy experienced a trade deficit of over $1.3 billion, with import growth outpacing export growth.

Related links on www.economywatch.com:

General Overview of Italian Economy

Value-Added Tax (VAT) in Italy

Forbes Companies in Italy

Levi Quinn asked:


For decades new car buyers have complained that their fuel economy has not measured up to the EPA estimates on the window sticker. Since the EPA began providing mileage estimates in the 1970’s, it has been known that the testing methods were not reflective of real world driving conditions and are more effective in comparing mileage between different models than determining actual fuel economy.

Although changes have been made to this fuel economy estimating system several times since the 70’s, new tests and formula for determining mileage and, as well as new window stickers, will be phased in with the 2008 model year, and new testing procedures will be mandatory by 2011.

It is speculated that the estimated mileage appearing on window stickers will be reduced in most models, but that these figures will more closely match the real world mileage of the vehicle. For drivers practicing good driving habits and maintenance, they may be able to get fuel economy that is higher than estimated.

Current fuel mileage tests are done with vehicles on a treadmill-like device designed to simulate real driving. However, these tests are done in moderate temperatures without any accessories running, such as air conditioning. The highway test is far outdated, with the top speed only being 60 mph, and an average speed of 48 mph. The city driving test simulates 7.5 miles of driving at an average of 20 mph with 18 stops.

The new fuel economy testing procedures will take into account and replicate three common scenarios that can significantly lower fuel economy, such as hard acceleration, cold temperature operation, and the use of air conditioning. Although some of these tests are done currently, they are used to determine emissions figures, but the data is factored into mileage estimates. For the 2008 model year, the EPA is simply using a different formula in an attempt to make mileage estimates more accurate.

It is expected that the new estimation formula and new testing procedures will lower fuel economy ratings by 10-30% across the board. The vehicles whose mileage ratings will see the biggest reduction are likely to be ones that are adversely affected by heavy demand on the engine from hard acceleration, air conditioning, and cold temperatures, such as high mileage cars.

Many environmentalists are disappointed that hybrids are expected to be among the vehicles with the biggest drop in estimated mileage. Some say this may have a negative impact on the hybrid market, but every vehicle will have the same actual fuel economy. The only difference is a more realistic mileage estimate.

While some fear this will cause consumers to neglect hybrid cars, many analysts and industry insiders see the new formula and tests in a positive light. Dave Alexander, a senior analyst at ABI Research, said, “There is potential in the long run for better customer satisfaction.” This is because a car whose window sticker says 30 mpg will be able to produce that mileage at 70 mph with the air conditioning on, in real driving conditions, instead of at a top speed of 60 mph with no accessories in a climate controlled setting.

Instead of turning consumers away from hybrids, more accurate mileage estimates may allow consumers to purchase vehicles that are actually more fuel efficient instead of continuing to be dissatisfied with lower than expected mileage.